Biden & Starmer’s Decision On Ukraine’s Long-Range Missiles

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A critical meeting between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden could change the course of the war in Ukraine. Whether or not to relax limitations on Ukraine’s long-range missiles given by Western allies is at the center of their deliberations. Ukraine has been clamouring for the ability to strike deeper into Russian territory, but Russia has issued stern warnings that such a move could drag NATO into direct conflict with Moscow.

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The timing of this meeting is crucial, as it may be one of Biden’s last major decisions on Ukraine before the U.S. election. His reluctance to fully arm Ukraine with long-range missiles is primarily due to concerns about provoking Russia. However, as the war drags on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s demands for more advanced weaponry are becoming harder to ignore.

According to recent reports in British media, Ukraine is already authorised to deploy its Storm Shadow missiles to launch strikes deep into Russian territory by the United Kingdom. However, due to the U.S.-made components in these weapons, Britain may still require Washington’s permission to fully greenlight these strikes. This complicates the conversations between Biden and Starmer even further.

Growing Pressure on Biden and Starmer

Both leaders are under immense pressure from allies to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s long-range missiles. Just days before this meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Europe, where he was met with repeated appeals to allow Ukraine to target deeper into Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been particularly vocal about this need, arguing that it is essential for Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s escalating missile and drone attacks.

Biden’s hesitation is understandable. While he did alter U.S. policy in May to allow Ukraine to strike Russian targets near the border, he has drawn a firm line on how far these missiles can travel. The fear is that allowing Ukraine to hit targets deep inside Russia would escalate the conflict and potentially lead to direct NATO involvement, something both Biden and Starmer want to avoid.

This complicates the conversations between Biden and Starmer even further. On September 12, he warned that any change in Western policy that allows Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian territory would mean NATO was essentially “at war” with Russia. He implied that NATO would be directly in charge of any missile attack when he said that Ukraine could only execute such strikes with the help of information and data from NATO satellites.

The Looming U.S. Election and Its Impact on Ukraine

This high-stakes meeting also comes against the backdrop of the looming U.S. election, which adds another layer of uncertainty to U.S. policy. Biden’s time in office is winding down, and with both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump vying for the presidency, Ukraine’s future support from the U.S. hangs in the balance.

Trump, during a debate with Harris, made it clear that he does not intend to take sides in the Ukraine war. His stance has been ambiguous at best, and he has repeatedly praised Putin, a move that has raised concerns in Kyiv. If Trump wins, Ukraine fears that U.S. support could dramatically diminish, leaving the country vulnerable in its fight against Russian aggression.

On the other hand, Harris has committed to continuing Biden’s policies, promising that U.S. support for Ukraine will remain steadfast. However, with the election outcome far from certain, Ukraine and its allies are anxiously watching these developments.

Starmer’s Role in the Talks

Keir Starmer’s role in these discussions is equally critical. Although he may not have the same direct influence over U.S. policy, he represents a key NATO ally and can help bridge the gap between Ukraine’s demands and the West’s concerns about escalation. Starmer’s position aligns closely with Biden’s cautious approach. Both leaders understand the need to support Ukraine, but neither wants to risk a direct confrontation with Russia.

However, the U.K.’s stance on Ukraine’s long-range missiles may be shifting. According to The Guardian, Ukraine’s deployment of its Storm Shadow missiles for deep-strike missions into Russia has already received approval from the British government. If this report is accurate, Starmer may be pushing for the U.S. to follow suit and relax its restrictions on the use of long-range weapons.

Russia’s Response

Unsurprisingly, Russia has responded with sharp rhetoric and warnings. Putin’s comments about NATO being “at war” with Russia are not to be taken lightly. Moscow’s rhetoric has always been aggressive, but as the conflict drags on, the risks of miscalculation grow higher.

On September 13, Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of Russia’s State Duma, accused NATO of already being a party to the conflict. Without providing evidence, Volodin claimed that NATO was actively helping Ukraine choose Russian targets and giving Kyiv orders on how to carry out strikes. These accusations, while unsubstantiated, serve as a reminder of how high tensions are between Russia and the West.

Putin’s warnings also underscore the delicate balance that Biden and Starmer must strike. Any significant change in policy regarding Ukraine’s long-range missiles could prompt a swift and dangerous reaction from Moscow. It’s a diplomatic and military tightrope that becomes more difficult to walk with each passing day.

The Importance of Ukraine’s Long-Range Missiles

From another perspective, the need for Ukraine’s long-range missiles is becoming increasingly urgent. As Russia moves its military assets further from the frontlines, Ukraine’s ability to strike back is diminishing. Zelensky has made it clear that longer-range weapons are essential for Ukraine to defend itself and reclaim lost territory.

The pressure on Ukraine’s Western friends to increase their support has only increased as a result of Russia’s territorial gains in the country’s east. Ukraine’s counteroffensive has had some successes, but without the ability to hit Russian targets deeper into enemy territory, it will be difficult for Ukraine to sustain its momentum.

A High-Stakes Meeting with Far-Reaching Consequences

As Biden and Starmer prepare for their meeting, the stakes could not be higher. Ukraine’s future in the war, the stability of NATO, and the broader question of European security all hinge on the outcome of these discussions.

Will Biden and Starmer take the risk of granting Ukraine the long-range missile capability it so desperately needs? Or will they hold back, wary of provoking a direct conflict with Russia?

With the U.S. election looming and Putin’s threats growing louder, this meeting may be one of the last opportunities for the West to define its role in the Ukraine war before the political landscape shifts dramatically. Whatever decision is made, it will have far-reaching consequences for the future of the conflict and for global security.